BACKGROUND: E-cigarettes are often marketed as harm reduction devices; meanwhile, they have generated many public health concerns around the world concerning their addictive properties and appeal to the young. In September 2019, India completely banned e-cigarettes. This analysis assesses the effect of this ban on the public's interest in e-cigarettes using Google Trends data.
METHODS: An ecological analysis was conducted using Google Trends data from January 2015 to December 2024. Keywords for e-cigarettes were analyzed to identify the timing and geographical changes in public interest. Changepoint analysis and ARIMA modeling are applied to determine changes and predict trajectories of change over time. Spatial patterns of search activity are also mapped out to explore regional disparities before and after the ban was enforced.
RESULTS: The relative interest of the public, measured as the Relative Search Volume (RSV) of e-cigarettes, peaked at 78 in August 2019 before the enforcement of the ban, and has trended downward since then to average 21 points during the post-ban period. By modeling with ARIMA (1,1,0), the interest over the long-term stabilized to a mean of RSV = 18, and the variability of such interest would range from ±5 over the next two years. Spatial analysis showed a shift in search interest from the southern states, which accounted for 45% of pre-ban searches, to the northeastern states, which accounted for 38% of searches after the ban. Although the numbers declined, persistent interest in vaping-related terms indicates continued interest and potential illegal market activity.
CONCLUSIONS: The e-cigarette ban has had a deep impact on public interest, thus showing its effectiveness in raising awareness and changing behavior. However, the persistent interest in certain areas shows the need for targeted interventions and constant monitoring to address emerging trends and potential illicit markets.