BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyse the potential effects of tax increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenues, and mortality from smoking in Jordan in 2024 by administering hypothetical price increases.
METHODS: The general Tobacconomics model developed by the Tobacconomics team (at the University of Illinois, Chicago) was used. The model simulates the increase in government revenues and public health benefits, due to changes in cigarettes taxes.
RESULTS: Raising both taxes by 20% seems to be the best policy scenario in Jordan as it significantly will decrease both cigarette consumption and future deaths and simultaneously increase government revenue. Raising tier tax by 20% could lead to a reduction in consumption and population death, raising both taxes by 20% will result in a more significant, desirable impact on consumption, mortality and government revenue. This scenario suggests a reduction in total government revenue. Although the suggested scenario of raising specific excise taxes by 20% is expected to reduce consumption and total deaths, it still has less impact on these outcomes when compared to raising both taxes by 20%.
CONCLUSIONS: The current modelling analysis indicates that a strategy of increased specific excise taxes, alongside a tiered tax structure, would not only reduce tobacco consumption but also augment government revenue significantly. This dual effect underpins the critical role of tax policy as an instrument of public health and fiscal strategy. This research posits that the pursuit of tobacco control in Jordan through taxation reforms is a testament to the country's commitment to public health. The intricate balance between health objectives and revenue generation is a hallmark of Jordan's tobacco taxation policy. As we move forward, the implications of our findings suggest a continued aggressive stance on tobacco taxation as a means to a healthier populace and improved public health outcomes. ​